Pakistan's Last Gambit? begins....

Pakistan is set to play perhaps the most critical role in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s actions will not only have a significant impact on the future of Afghanistan but also on Pakistan itself.

The key question is what kind of role will Pakistan play in the near future? Will it be collaborative and constructive? Or will it follow on the lines of the traditional rational-irrational paradox which Pakistan has been pursuing for decades? Either way, the impact of the events will be momentous for both Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the region as a whole.

Some of these consequences can be predicted with relative ease like the Taliban domination in east and southern Afghanistan for some time, political and economic instability and even a renewal of a simmering civil war. The consequences which fall in the realm of ‘unknown unknowns’ are more worrisome. One such ‘unknown’ is how a politically unsure and economically weak Pakistan will withstand the onslaught of a stunning blowback from its own delinquent actions in Afghanistan and elsewhere.

Can it rescue itself from being dragged into the ‘eye of the storm’? Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan has so far been defined by its security concerns emanating from Afghanistan.

Before 9/11, these concerns were dominantly about India’s expanding role and presence in Afghanistan and the paranoia about being encircled by the enemy besides the problem of Pashtun consolidation along the Durand Line. Post-September 2001, with the US demanding support from Pakistan to dismantle the Taliban-al Qaeda structure in Afghanistan, the nature of threats to Pakistan became more complicated, requiring in turn a more devious, and covert, strategy which carried a heavy price for failure. There was no choice: the US threat to Pakistan for non-compliance was direct and compelling.

To be continued....