Pakistan’s Last Gambit? Continues....

A former ISI chief revealed that Punjabi regiments refused to be deployed in the Frontier and that the ‘surrenders’ to the Taliban contingents speak of an ideological conflict and ethnic polarisation within the force. A less debated point is the possibility that a significant number of middle-rung officers in the Pakistan Army were probably recruited from urban areas during the Islamisation drive of General Zia-ul Haq. These officers, bred on anti-India and anti-US policies, remained sceptical about US intentions and its campaign in the tribal areas.

These were the officers who stayed back in Afghanistan to train and advise the Taliban fighters even when the US jets were pounding the country. Most of these issues continue to bedevil the Pakistan Army.

The fact that the new Army chief had to rely heavily on air force combat missions to target TTP hideouts in North Waziristan indicate both a sense of desperation and a reluctance to launch ground troops into the region, both of which could prove to be counter-productive. Aerial bombings have already triggered a mass scale migration which could revive the humanitarian crisis witnessed when the army went into Swat to clear out Maulana Fazlullah and his men who today, incidentally, control TTP.

The latest North Waziristan operation (December 2013) is also indicative of little choice Pakistan has in the wake of the US drawdown in Afghanistan. It is fairly clear that the Taliban will continue to dominate southern and eastern Afghanistan for a forseeable future. It is equally difficult to dislodge terrorist groups which are closely tied to the Taliban like the Haqqani Network. Neutralising TTP is not an easy task either since the umbrella group is in many ways tied to the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani Network. It is not clear how long the Taliban leadership will allow the military to continue with its renewed offensive till it hits back.

The Taliban’s principle aim of establishing an Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan also clashes with Pakistan’s democratic state. In fact, the Taliban leaders had stated in the past about their intention to turn to Pakistan once Afghanistan was cleared of the foreign forces.