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After remaining in a deep freeze for more than two years, it looks like the war in Ukraine is helping to bring about a thaw in the India-China relationship.
In what is being seen as a landmark development, last week, Beijing proposed a visit to New Delhi by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi toward the end of this month in a bid to end the longest military standoff between the two countries in history.
For several weeks now, China is utilising an opening to reach out to India amid a widening gap between Washington and New Delhi over India's position on the conflict.
At recently concluded, Quad meetings, India has broken the line with Australia, the U.S. and Japan and has held back the alliance from denouncing the Russian invasion, coupled with frequent abstentions from UN resolutions against the Russian invasion which are precisely in line with China's stand on the issue. More recently, India has also begun publicly taking out cheap Russian oil, which is looking for new buyers amidst the standoff with Western Europe.
Also, for all the discussion of China as a common threat, India doesn’t appear to care about most of what troubles the U.S. So far, it has reflected no position on Taiwan, Xinjiang or China’s efforts in replacing the U.S. as a leader in the global economic power game. For India, tranquillity on the border with China is the primary and arguably the sole objective.
Under the present circumstances, India is fast becoming an unlikely ally for both China and Russia more than at any time in the past.
Up until the Ukraine war, China had been sluggish to pick up and exploit India’s growing divergence with the U.S. on global norms and values. This recent exploration of a meeting in New Delhi, however, may be a sign that China is finally wakening to a huge strategic opportunity to pursue a thaw with India.
But New Delhi must tread with caution while dealing with Beijing and undo the rift only when it has more to gain than lose from the change in dynamics.