Recent gains point to a growing Russian advantage in the Ukraine war

By Alexander Hill, University of Calgary

The ongoing war in Ukraine is not featuring as prominently in western news media these days as it was earlier in the war, because it has been overshadowed by the unfolding human tragedy of the war in Gaza.

However, the war in Ukraine is still very much ongoing, and both sides are clearly suffering significant losses. Yet it appears that slowly but surely Russia is gaining ground on and off the battlefield.

The recent Ukrainian withdrawal from the stronghold of Avdiivka did make the headlines. On that sector of the front near the city of Donetsk, Russian forces have pushed beyond Avdiivka and continue to gain ground.

Russian forces have also made limited gains on other sectors of the front line.

Meanwhile, the Russian economy is increasingly mobilized for war, and the government has been able to obtain some military resources from abroad, circumventing western sanctions.

All of this means that Russia is, relative to Ukraine, in an increasingly strong position as the war enters its third year.

Russian advantage

While Russian advances are clearly costing their forces heavy losses, the Ukrainian side too is taking significant losses, often when defending increasingly untenable defensive positions. Russian forces typically have a numerical advantage in terms of numbers of troops, artillery and their munitions. In terms of drones — where Ukrainian forces once had an advantage — Russian forces seem to have caught up or even outpaced Ukraine.

Some western commentators have portrayed Russian tactics as mindless attacks with hordes of infantry — sometimes derogatorily described as orcs. The reality is that the Russian army has adapted to the nature of the war today. It is now much better at co-ordinating the activities of artillery, drones and small groups of infantry. Even Ukrainian sources highlight how at least some Russian troops are well-trained and capable.

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