Impact on India continues....

There are doubts in New Delhi about the sincerity of the Taliban in wanting to reach a peaceful political settlement to the

conflict. There is a fear that once the US departs the Taliban would

gradually attempt to impose their rule on the rest of the country,

which would eventually have a spill over effect on the rest of the

region as well. Gautam Mukhopadhyay, India’s former Ambassador to Afghanistan, had said that the Taliban’s return to

power in Afghanistan “could be even more dangerous than the situation in 1996-2001 when the Taliban were in power, because of the extent to which jihadi groups have now gained ground in Pakistan, strengthened ties with the Taliban and al Qaeda, and

assimilated the ambitions and methodology of al Qaeda.” He also

expressed doubts that “the impact of any eventual return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan would be limited to that country.” More recently, M. K. Narayanan, the former National Security Adviser, also warned that Taliban dominance in Afghanistan could have the “gravest consequences” for the region.

He claimed that if the “Taliban succeed in Afghanistan, India is their next target.”



Despite such apprehensions, there is a need to review the status quo vis-à-vis the Taliban simply because the region has changed dramatically since the 1990s. Although it is easy to dismiss the Taliban as a movement guided simply by ideology and, thus, inherently an anti-Indian force, over the years there have been indicators to suggest that the Taliban may be open to engaging with India. In its most comprehensive statement to-date on this subject in September 1998, the Taliban stated as follows: “Afghanistan and India had friendly relations in the past. We don’t have any diplomatic ties now, but we won’t mind resuming relations with India as, at least, we won’t have to contend with an enemy India.

To be continued...