Impact on India begins....

India’s concerns regarding Afghanistan stem from Pakistan and its overambitious role in the events unfolding in Afghanistan. As already discussed in chapter 1, India’s engagement with Afghanistan has been possible as a result of the security provided by the foreign forces. In the past, curtailment of aid by India had coincided with a decline in Indian influence on Afghan affairs. A decrease in India’s future engagement with Afghanistan post-2014 could foster Pakistan’s moves to increase its influence in the country.

The US need for an orderly drawdown from Afghanistan and its dependency on Pakistan could lead to a disproportionate accommodation of Pakistani interests in the lead up to December 2014, and beyond. The impending drawdown of foreign forces is likely to give rise to the very conditions that India is keen to avoid in Afghanistan.

The absence of substantial foreign forces is likely to create a security vacuum, allowing extremist elements to thrive once again.

There are doubts in India, as in the rest of the international community, regarding the capability of the Afghan National Security Forces to tackle the security challenges on its own. India has been looking at this development with great concern. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, regarding the US drawdown, had stated, “It does hurt us. It could hurt us. No one knows what is going to happen in Afghanistan.”

It is the perception of Afghanistan as part of its immediate neighbourhood which has led New Delhi to draw a direct link between developments in Afghanistan and its security.

India has always maintained that instability in Afghanistan poses a major challenge to the security and development of not only India’s instability but also the entire region and beyond. Pakistan’s role in fuelling this instability in the past, and at present, and India’s concerns about Pakistan’s intentions vis-à-vis Afghanistan also play a prominent role in shaping India’s Afghan policy.

To be continued...