Will abortion be the issue that swings the 2024 US presidential election?

By Prudence Flowers, Flinders University

Abortion is shaping up to be a central issue for both parties in the 2024 US presidential and Congressional elections.

Nearly two years ago, the US Supreme Court overturned the landmark Roe v. Wade decision, finding there was no constitutional right to abortion and returning regulation to the states.

Since that decision (a case known as Dobbs v. Jackson), 14 states now ban abortion in almost all circumstances and ten have imposed restrictions, some of which have been blocked by the courts. One in three women of reproductive age now live in states that have either banned or restricted abortion.

Abortion remains legal and protected in 26 states, plus the District of Columbia.

For decades, abortion has been central to partisan politics in the United States. Republicans made opposition to abortion a core part of their identity and voter mobilisation strategies. They pumped out so-called “messaging bills” (dramatic legislation with little chance of passing or being upheld, such as the Life At Conception bill), while pledging to end Roe v Wade.

Yet, abortion was not a make-or-break electoral cause. In 2018, sociologist Ziad Munson concluded

[…] for the vast majority of the public, abortion is simply not a key issue they consider when deciding their vote.

Most Americans still support abortion rights

Dobbs v. Jackson, however, transformed the political landscape. Support for abortion is now at a record high among Americans, with 69% believing abortion should be legal in the first three months of pregnancy and 61% believing that overturning Roe v. Wade was a “bad thing”.

Women and young people have rushed to register as new voters. And 21% of registered voters describe abortion as the issue they would be unwilling to compromise on, a sentiment most pronounced among Democrats and independents.

In the 2022 midterm elections in the US, voter anger over Dobbs v. Jackson was widely credited with stopping the expected “red wave” in Congress and state races, even as President Joe Biden’s approval rating hovered around 40%.

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