Why Iran’s failed attack on Israel may well turn out to be a strategic success

By Gavin E.L. Hall, University of Strathclyde

As midnight approached on April 13, over 300 weapons were launched from Iran towards Israel. This included 185 drones, 110 ballistic missiles and 36 cruise missiles. The vast majority were shot down by Israel’s Iron Dome air defence system with help from the UK, the US and neighbouring Jordan.

The lack of impact on the ground has led many to describe the attack as a tactical failure. But the first direct assault on Israel by Iran may well turn out to be a strategic success. The timing of the strike is crucial, orchestrated to expose divisions both within Israel and between Israel and the US.

Over the Easter weekend, tens of thousands of people took to the streets in several Israeli cities to protest against the government. They called for the removal of the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, primarily over the lack of progress being made in securing the release of hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza.

The protesters see Netanyahu as an obstacle to a deal that sees the hostages released. He has consistently refused to negotiate with Hamas, saying that total victory over Hamas, not negotiations, is what will win the hostages’ release. The mother of one of those taken captive has described Netanyahu’s handling of the hostage situation as “incomprehensible and criminal”.

The problem is that Netanyahu is trying to maintain a fragile coalition that represents fractured views across Israeli politics. Regardless of whether a deal could potentially be reached, hardline elements of the coalition have been pushing for a full-scale assault on the city of Rafah in southern Gaza to remove Hamas battalions.

Netanyahu has publicly stated that “there is no way to do this without a ground incursion”. The Israeli government has also issued a number of public statements and ultimatums that it will launch an assault on Rafah if the hostages are not released, and that it is necessary to achieve the stated objective of victory over Hamas.

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