US launches retaliatory strikes in Iraq and Syria − a national security expert explains the message they send

By Gregory F. Treverton, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

The United States mounted more than 125 retaliatory strikes against Iranian forces and Iranian-backed militias at seven military sites in Iraq and Syria on Feb. 2, 2024, after a drone strike killed three U.S. soldiers and injured 34 more in Jordan on Jan. 28.

The retaliatory strikes, which U.S. military officials say hit 85 targets, including command and control operations centers, intelligence centers and munition supply chain facilities, are the latest chapter in the Middle East conflict, which President Joe Biden has tried to avoid escalating.

Biden announced on Jan. 30 that he had decided how to respond to the drone strike that killed the soldiers and said, “I don’t think we need a wider war in the Middle East.” The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an Iranian-backed militia group, claimed responsibility for the attack, while Iran denied any direct involvement in it.

The U.S. retaliatory strikes happened hours after the remains of the  American soldiers were returned to the U.S.

The Conversation U.S. spoke with Gregory Treverton, a former chairman of the National Intelligence Council in the Obama administration, to understand the strategic thinking behind this retaliatory attack.

What are some of the factors that likely played a role in the US deciding to launch a retaliatory strike and when to launch it?

Regarding timing, the president may have wanted to get the bodies of the service people who were killed in Jordan back home and give some time for everyone to think. In the last few days, we saw that Iran and Iraq did put pressure on some of the proxy groups to wind down their operations. In one case, one of these Iran-backed militia groups in Iraq agreed to cease operations this last week. Iran also said that they do not want a wider war with the U.S.

With the time it took Biden to authorize the strike.

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