US election: why Latino and Hispanic voters are shifting to Trump after a long history of supporting the Democrats

By Paul Whiteley, University of Essex

Several recent polls suggest that the Hispanic and Latino vote is shifting towards Donald Trump as the election moves closer.

In a YouGov poll from May 8, 43% of Americans said they would vote for President Joe Biden and 43% would vote for Trump if the election was held now. The election for the next president of the US is currently extremely close, with other polls predicting similar tight results.

Given the close race, the Latino vote (people whose heritage is from Latin America) and the Hispanic vote (people whose heritage is from Spanish-speaking countries) could be extremely important, particularly in states which regularly swing between the Democrats and Republicans in presidential elections.

A look at the relationship between ethnicity and vote intentions in the YouGov survey shows that around 38% of white people say they will vote for Biden and 49% for Trump. In the case of Hispanics, the figures are 45% for Biden and 39% for Trump.

However any move towards Trump among these groups is particularly interesting because they are increasing in numbers in the US over time, and because Hispanics have historically lent towards the Democrats.

According to the Pew Research Centre, there were 62.5 million Latinos living in the US in 2021, about 19% of the total population. The Hispanic population in the US grew from 35 million in 2000, to 42 million in 2021.

Hispanic voting patterns in US elections:

The chart above shows the relationship between Hispanic ethnicity and voting in the 14 US presidential elections since 1968, using data from the American National Election Survey. It should be noted that this survey focuses on Hispanics and does not include a Latino category in the analysis. Throughout this period of more than 50 years, Hispanic voters have consistently preferred the Democrats to the Republicans, although this has varied across individual states.

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