Ukraine war: why propaganda doesn’t work as well in Belarus as it does in Russia

By Natasha Lindstaedt, University of Essex

Though Russia has accidentally bombed one of its own villages, implemented a harsh conscription policy, and already faced 315,000 casualties, Russian support for the “special military operation” in Ukraine has not wavered much. Throughout the conflict, levels of support have averaged about 75%.

In contrast, Belarusian people are far more wary of being drawn into the conflict. Based on a survey conducted by the thinktank Chatham House in August 2022, only 25% supported Russia’s actions (if it meant not getting directly involved), while a whopping 97% opposed the deployment of Belarusian troops.

Additionally, a surprisingly low number of Belarusians (26%) said they would feel negatively if Belarusian soldiers refused to fight or follow orders. Some Belarusians have even become directly involved in the conflict to support Ukraine, such as in May 2023 when Belarusian volunteers tricked the Russians into firing on their own positions in the town of Bakmut.

As conducting surveys in authoritarian regimes draws concern that the responses may be biased in favour of the regime, this makes the results in Belarus even more surprising. Meanwhile, the country’s president, Alexander Lukashenko, has allowed Russian troops to pass through his territory to invade Ukraine, and supported Putin’s invasion.

Why Belarus is different

For the most part, the majority of urban Belarusians surveyed want Belarus to distance itself from the war and express neutrality. In contrast to Russians, Belarusian society considers the war senseless and harmful to Belarus.

What explains these diverging views? In general, Belarusians are much more war averse than Russians, with very different memories of what they call “the great patriotic war” (the second world war). Of all of the former Soviet republics, Belarus sustained the most casualties per capita, and since gaining independence in 1991, it aspired for neutrality – something that was built into its constitution. But this was put into jeopardy from 2020, when Lukashenko was forced to cosy up to Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, after protests broke out challenging the Belarus election.

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