Ukraine war: the west is at a crossroads – double down on aid to Kyiv, accept a compromise deal, or face humiliation by Russia

By Stefan Wolff, University of Birmingham

In the summer and autumn of 2022, there was much discussion about finding an “off-ramp” to allow Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, a face-saving way out of an unwinnable war. Now, as Ukraine heads into the third year of defending itself against Russia’s aggression, the suggestion persists – but increasingly, it’s the west that needs the off-ramp.

Ukraine’s prospects, after two years of a gruelling war that have taken an enormous human toll, are uncertain. Its population losses, both in terms of battlefield casualties and the flood of emigration that followed the invasion, will be difficult to remedy, and could have crippling consequences for Ukraine’s already struggling economy.

Not only that but the cost of the war is increasing at a staggering rate. The latest joint assessment by the EU, World Bank and UN of Ukraine’s recovery needs puts these at US$486 billion (£385.6 billion), up $75 billion since last year. This means Ukraine’s needs have grown in 12 months by one and a half times the total amount the EU has made available in support for Ukraine over the next four years.

According to the annual index of risks for 2023 produced by the Munich Security Conference, a global forum for debating international security policy, Russia was perceived as the top risk by five of the G7 countries. In 2024, this perception is only shared by two G7 members.

Given the absolutely critical dependence of Ukraine on G7 political, economic and military support, this is worrying. It does not bode well for the ability of Europe’s political leaders to sustain the necessary public backing for continued aid transfers. Voters in France and Germany, for example, are significantly more concerned about mass migration and radical Islamic terrorism than Putin’s designs for Ukraine.

Moreover, Ukraine is not the only crisis demanding the attention of the collective west. The war in Gaza and wider conflagration across the Middle East is, and will remain, high on the agenda.

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