Two upcoming elections are likely to tip the balance of power between China, India and the US

By Chee Meng Tan, University of Nottingham

Two elections this year may shift the triangular balance of power between China, India and the US.

Indian prime minister Narenda Modi is expected to be returned to power after the Indian elections, which run from April 19 to June 1. Modi has woven a close relationship with Donald Trump, who is seeking re-election as US president in November.

Modi established a strong relationship with Trump during his first presidency. Both men have strong nationalistic credentials, possess larger-than-life personas, and focus on immigration policies. If both Trump and Modi ascend to power, India-US ties are likely to be stronger than ever.

Meanwhile, the China-US relationship is not doing well. Trump’s tariffs that continued throughout Biden’s presidency may be ramped up if Trump returns to the White House. In an interview with Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures, Trump announced that if re-elected, tariffs on Chinese goods would exceed 60%.

But that’s not all. Trump intends to further reduce US dependency on the Chinese economy by phasing out all essential Chinese imports within four years, banning US firms who outsource to China from obtaining federal contracts, and preventing Chinese firms from owning key infrastructure in the energy, technology and agricultural sectors. Moreover, since Trump had banned US firms from investing in Chinese companies that may compromise US security during his first presidency, it is likely that he would do the same during his second administration.

As the Chinese economy weakens and the youth unemployment rate remains high at 14.9%, China needs foreign funds to stimulate its ailing economy and increase exports. Unfortunately for Beijing, Trump’s agenda not only undermines China’s economic recovery but US prohibitions of its tech firms from investing in China would also batter Beijing’s ambitions of becoming a world leader in artificial intelligence by 2030.

Rise of India

Even though Trump intends to slap a baseline tariff of 10% on all imports, the high tariffs levied on Chinese imports present huge trading opportunities for India.

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