Sudan Armed Forces are on a path to self-destruction – risking state collapse

By Harry Verhoeven, Columbia University

It is now 10 months since the outbreak of civil war in Sudan in April 2023, pitting the Sudan Armed Forces against the Rapid Support Forces, a powerful paramilitary group. The war, which erupted after relations between the two wings of Sudan’s security apparatus broke down, rapidly spread beyond the capital, Khartoum.

More recently, the Sudan Armed Forces have suffered numerous setbacks at the hands of the Rapid Support Forces. For months, army units have struggled to break their grip on much of the capital. The Rapid Support Forces and their allied militias have overrun most of Darfur and swathes of South Kordofan in western Sudan.

Since December 2023, Rapid Support Forces columns have also advanced into central and eastern Sudan. This followed the collapse of army defences in Wad Medani, one of the country’s biggest cities. This was a landmark humiliation for the Sudan Armed Forces.

In the eyes of decision-makers across the region, the prospect of Rapid Support Forces supremo Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti” becoming Sudan’s new strongman is a distinct possibility.

This success owes much to the Rapid Support Forces outperforming expectations. Their management of logistics over immense distances, local commanders tactically outwitting their opponents, and Emirati support via neighbouring Chad have all played a part.

But at least as important is the Sudan Armed Forces’ under-performance, militarily as well as politically.

I have studied Sudan’s tempestuous political transition from war to peace and back to the present crisis. My recent paper details the strategies used by the Sudan Armed Forces in managing revolution and democratisation efforts, today as well as in past transitions.

It is my conclusion that the once mighty Sudan Armed Forces have made military and political errors that have increased the possibility of their disintegration and the collapse of the Sudanese state. The ongoing civil war could be the trigger of this implosion, but not the underlying cause.

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