Should we believe Rishi Sunak’s hint that the election will be in October? What the evidence tells us

By Gemma Loomes, Keele University

So now we know. After weeks of speculation, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said he is “working on the assumption” that a general election will take place in the second half of this year. That’s just a few months before the latest possible date of January 28 2025.

The choice of an autumn election does make sense for Sunak and the Conservatives. With the polls showing the Labour opposition on a stable and substantial lead, it makes sense for the Conservatives to buy some time. The idea would be to try to make inroads into Labour’s lead before setting an election date.

Much rests on the fate of the economy. A year ago, Sunak promised to halve inflation, grow the economy and get debt falling. Independent analysis shows that inflation has halved, but less success on economic growth and falling debt.

Between now and the autumn, Sunak will hope that the economy shows signs of recovery. An autumn election will also give voters time to feel the economic benefits of the tax cuts that are anticipated in the spring, which could potentially provide the Conservatives with a boost in the polls.

Why ‘autumn’ means ‘October’

There are other reasons why an autumn 2024 election makes sense. During the post-war period, October has proven to be a popular month for elections – even though the last time an election was held in October was 1974. Although over recent decades, most general elections have taken place in the spring, between 1950 and 1974, four of the nine elections were held in October, with only one taking place in May.

No post-war general election has been held in August, September or November. If an election is held in the autumn, October would seem the most likely month if history is anything to go by.

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