And yet, as Koh’s former State Department colleague Stephen Pomper argues, the arrest warrant could have serious “negative effects.” Now the policy chief at the International Crisis Group, Pomper worries that the move could make Putin even more dangerous and destructive, impede any future peace process, and prevent multilateral cooperation with Russia on collateral issues like humanitarian assistance in Syria and Afghanistan. It could also harm the legitimacy of the ICC itself, especially if the warrant splits international support for the Court, or if countries refuse to meet their legal obligation to arrest and transfer Putin to The Hague if given the chance.

Analogous tradeoffs bedevil the Trump prosecution. Trump deserves to go to jail if he violated New York criminal law. The fact that he is a former president is irrelevant. And the conviction of such a powerful figure would be a special vindication of the rule of law. The indictment might also, as Alexander Burns argues, harm Trump politically by driving home to the marginal voter Trump’s sleaziness and unfitness for office.

But it could also have the opposite effect. New York County District Attorney Alvin L. Bragg’s case is widely regarded as weak, including by a respected lawyer who previously worked on it himself. Because of this weakness, and in light of Bragg’s connections to Democratic Party politics, Republicans will largely view the indictment as politically motivated, and have already managed to pick a political fight with Bragg.

The short-term politics of Bragg’s indictment, and of Trump’s angry responses, are hard to assess. But the episode seems likely to negatively impact federal Special Counsel Jack Smith’s more serious and credible investigations into Trump. Smith has a powerful case, especially when it comes to Trump’s possession of US government documents – including many highly classified ones – at his Mar-a-Lago home.

(See support post for the conclusion...)