Narendra Modi’s economy isn’t booming for India’s unemployed youth. So, why is his party favoured to win another election?

By Ian Hall, Griffith University

India will soon hold the biggest election ever conducted, starting on April 19 and running through early June. Almost 950 million registered voters will be able to cast ballots to elect the 543 members of the Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament.

The result is not a foregone conclusion, but most analysts expect Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to win another five years in office. After a decade in power, the opinion polls suggest Modi is still well regarded by many Indians and the main opposition parties do not command wide support.

Slow growth, too few jobs

This situation might strike some as odd. The Modi government’s record is mixed – especially in managing the economy – and has disappointed many voters.

To be sure, as the prime minister frequently reminds voters, India has grown faster than many competitors in recent years. But the BJP came to office ten years ago promising double-digit growth rates and it has never achieved that goal.

Worse still, it has struggled to generate jobs for the millions of young people who need them.

Critics point to errors in BJP economic policy they think have stifled growth and job creation. These include:

• the shock inflicted in 2016 by the sudden withdrawal of 85% of India’s paper money, ostensibly to combat corruption

• the bungled introduction of much-needed reforms to the agricultural sector

• and the ongoing protection of India’s big industrial conglomerates from domestic and foreign competition.

Taken together, critics charge, these mistakes have left too many people in precarious work and held back investment in manufacturing, which could offer more people more jobs.

Shoring up a Hindu nationalist base

Why, then, do so many Indians still support the Modi government?

Part of the answer lies in the BJP’s ability to appeal to multiple constituencies with targeted messages.

Ruling India effectively depends on constructing and maintaining coalitions – either coalitions of parties or coalitions of voters.

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