Moscow attacks: why the Kremlin may have ignored any terrorist warnings from the CIA

By Robert M. Dover, University of Hull

The attack on the Crocus City concert hall in the Moscow suburbs, which left 137 people dead, has again raised questions about the effectiveness of intelligence in identifying and preventing massive acts of terrorism.

Intelligence about such events is rarely precise. Often it is made up of fragments of information or hearsay, spread across policing and intelligence agencies and across international boundaries. Intelligence analysis is how agencies bring all of these threads together into a picture that makes sense and that allows officials to respond.

Intelligence analysis relies on good and timely information, open minds and officials using it in the right way. As such, it should be surprising that more attacks do not occur.

At the start of March, the US issued a warning about the imminent threat of a mass casualty terrorist attack against large gatherings including concerts, and warned its citizens to avoid such places for the following 48 hours. US National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said information about such a planned attack had also been shared with Russian authorities.

https://twitter.com/NSC_Spox/status/1771379863330709611?t=mqQsvUOBBMXaoHMqj3yWhA&s=19

A warning from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), with its extensive access to communications and human intelligence, is highly credible. While it was not for exactly the same date, the warning that the US issued is close enough to the date of the Crocus City attack to be considered relevant. It also mentioned Moscow and an entertainment venue as targets.

CNN also said it had reports from two sources that since November there had been a steady stream of intelligence that Isis-K was determined to attack Russia.

But the Russian government currently feels like it is in a state of war with the west. They also know that the CIA is heavily involved in providing the Ukrainians with military intelligence.

In this context it is difficult for the Kremlin to take US warnings seriously, and even to admit to having received them. Dimitri Peskov, a Kremlin spokesman, argued that Russia does not need American intelligence.

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