Mass extinction: our fossil study reveals which types of species are most at risk from climate change

By Erin Saupe, Cooper Malanoski, University of Oxford

Many experts believe we may soon face a mass extinction event, with a high proportion of Earth’s species dying out. Projections indicate the climate will continue to change for centuries to come, and this is a significant threat to biodiversity that has already had an impact on many species.

Despite the threat that climate change poses to biodiversity, we do not yet fully understand how it causes animals to go extinct. In our new paper, published in Science, we used the fossil record to make more precise estimates.

The geological rock record provides critical insight on past extinctions caused by a variety of climate change events. Fossils therefore offer a rare opportunity to understand the mechanisms of extinction and investigate how climate shifts have led to extinction in the past. Understanding why species went extinct under natural, pre-human conditions is paramount, since human-induced extinction drivers are accumulating over time.

By identifying which traits are linked to extinction, we can potentially use this knowledge to identify at-risk species to prioritise in conservation efforts.

In our latest research article, we analysed a data set comprising over 290,000 marine invertebrate fossils, covering the last 485 million years of Earth’s history. We looked directly for the traits most crucial for survival in the geologic past.

Previous studies have highlighted small body size and limited geographic range size (the spatial extent occupied by a species) as key predictors of extinction risk throughout geological history.

We reconstructed the climate for 81 geological stages across the Phanerozoic (the current geological era, starting 541 million years ago). And we used climate models to determine the range of temperatures that each species can endure.

These factors were then compared against geographic range size and body size to assess their relative importance. We then estimated an external factor that may impact risk of extinction: the magnitude of climate change experienced by each species.

Read Full Story https://theconversation.com/mass-extinction-our-fossil-study-reveals-which-types-of-species-are-most-at-risk-from-climate-change-225359