Japan is about to land its first lunar probe. As more nations race to the Moon, how will we keep the peace?

By Richard de Grijs, Macquarie University

Early on Saturday, January 20 2024, Japan hopes to become the fifth country to successfully land a probe on the Moon. To date, the United States, the Soviet Union, China and India have preceded the East Asian nation.

Launched in September 2023 by the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), the Japanese Smart Lander for Investigating Moon (SLIM) is set to touch down around 02:20am AEDT. Trialling a novel landing technique with pinpoint accuracy, it is poised to settle on a gently sloped crater rim – a first in lunar exploration.

JAXA celebrates the mission as a technology demonstrator. The agency’s main aim is to practice near-real-time visual precision landing. The newly developed landing technology would allow them to touch down anywhere they want, rather than only where the terrain is favourable.

Plans for a follow-up expedition, the Lunar Polar Exploration probe (LUPEX), are well advanced. That mission will be developed jointly with the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO).

The Moon is a busy target

In recent years, the Moon has become a key target for exploration missions. For instance, just last year we witnessed Russia’s attempted landing of its Luna 25 probe and the first successful ISRO Moon shot, Chandrayaan-3.

Meanwhile, the US aims to return humans to the Moon through their Artemis programme while also supporting commercial companies in their quest to reestablish a viable presence there.

NASA and its international partners aim to eventually place a crewed space station in lunar orbit, the Gateway Lunar Space Station.

Simultaneously, China continues its successful, carefully planned Chang'e project. The Asian powerhouse is working towards establishing its own International Lunar Research Station. That Chinese–Russian project is promoted as “open to all interested countries and international partners”.

‘Peaceful intentions’

To date, the leading spacefaring nations have gone to great lengths to publicly assure us that their intentions in space are peaceful. Yet, last year Yury Borisov of Russia’s space agency Roscosmos bluntly stated:

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