According to a Reuters survey of economists, India's consumer price inflation (CPI) is anticipated to have moderated to 4.91% in March, marking a decline from February's 5.09%. Despite this easing, the inflation rate remains above the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4%, primarily driven by persistent food price increases.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das highlighted concerns over food price volatility, which has consistently outpaced headline inflation, disproportionately impacting low-income households reliant on government food subsidies.

Analysts attribute the disinflation trend to subdued momentum across food, fuel, and core items, with some influence from base effects. However, the forecast suggests that inflation may temporarily return to the RBI's target next quarter before surpassing it in subsequent periods.

Potential supply-side disruptions, particularly due to an impending heat wave, pose risks to the downward inflation trajectory in the coming months. Despite robust economic growth exceeding expectations, experts suggest that monetary policy support may not be immediately warranted, with the RBI's focus likely shifting towards a rate cut in the next quarter.

While core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is estimated at 3.27% in March, official figures for core inflation are not publicly available. The overall outlook underscores the delicate balance between managing inflationary pressures and sustaining economic growth momentum in India.