How policy in North Korea is affected by politics in South Korea – and vice versa

By Colin Alexander, Nottingham Trent University

In a speech delivered at the Supreme People’s Assembly in January, North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-Un, stated that reunification with South Korea was no longer possible and that their neighbour should now represent the “primary foe and invariable principal enemy”.

This amounted to a rare foreign policy pivot by Pyongyang, which consistently aimed for reunification of the peninsula since it was divided in the armistice that ended the 1950-1953 war.

Pyongyang’s new position towards the South has been widely interpreted as evidence of warmongering on the part of the North. The South, by contrast, is almost always portrayed as a benign neighbour and an unwilling target for threats of aggression. But it’s not as simple as that.

When it comes to North Korea’s foreign policy shifts, political developments and public opinion in the South plays a key – if often understated – role. Pyongyang must also take domestic factors into consideration when making statements about peninsular relations.

Politics in South Korea

Relations with the North are one of the most contentious issues in South Korean politics. Changes in power between political parties can often result in policy pivots in Seoul from hostility to reconciliation and back to hostility. Efforts towards friendlier peninsular relations are known as the “sunshine policy” in Seoul.

South Korea’s presidential system limits presidents to a single five-year term. This means that presidents interested in improving relations with Pyongyang only have a few years to make progress before leaving office. For continuity to be guaranteed, the incumbent president is reliant upon their successor being similarly minded and possibly even part of the diplomatic team in a junior or advisory role and so already known to North Koreans.

These circumstances are difficult to manufacture though. Meaning that most of what is agreed by the South during friendlier times amounts to minor or temporary bridge building, which is a considerable frustration to the North.

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