How Iran responds to Damascus attack could determine trajectory of conflict in the Middle East

By Javed Ali, University of Michigan

Reports that Iran is preparing reprisal attacks following the deadly bombing of a facility that Israel claims is linked to threats against its interests have provoked fears of conflict widening in the Middle East.

U.S. President Joe Biden has vowed “ironclad” support for Israel, which is widely considered to be responsible for the April 1, 2024, attack, amid fiery rhetoric from Tehran warning of revenge.

But what could an Iranian response look like? And how is Tehran thinking about the associated pros and cons of any such activity? The Conversation U.S. turned to Javed Ali, a national security expert at the University of Michigan and former senior U.S. counterterrorism official, for answers.

How has the Damascus attack changed the calculus in Tehran?

The attack in Damascus – which the Israeli government has yet to acknowledge publicly – was a dramatic turn in the long-running shadow war between Israel and Iran.

In the history of the Quds Force, it had never lost that many officers in one operation by its adversaries. Even the significant U.S. attack against former Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani in January 2020 did not kill other senior members of the organization.

In addition, Mohammad Zahedi, one of the generals killed in the April 1 attack, was directly responsible for managing relationships with Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Syrian government and Shia militias in that country, and Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza and the West Bank.

What have the US, Israel and Iran said about reprisal attacks?

Immediately after the attack, Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, publicly blamed Israel and vowed revenge. Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir said, “We consider this aggression to have violated all diplomatic norms and international treaties. (Israeli Prime Minister) Benjamin Netanyahu has completely lost his mental balance due to the successive failures in Gaza and his failure to achieve his Zionist goals.”

From the Israeli perspective, even though there was no official acknowledgment of the Damascus operation, Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Rear Adm.

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