Not long ago, before Russia invaded Ukraine — there was everything to play for in the French presidential election, with all the rivals jostling to thwart Macron's chances of winning a second term in the Elysee Palace.

Eric Zemmour, the talk-show wrangler, was embarking on a serious challenge to Marine Le Pen as the champion of the French extreme right. Valérie Pécresse was set to win the primary for the conservative Les Républicains party and was shortly rated by opinion polls as the biggest threat to Macron.

But today, France is exactly where it was a year ago, with voters likely to have a choice between Macron and Le Pen in the second round on April 24!

Such an outcome would recount the contest won by the “neither right nor left” Macron five years back.

However, Macron’s leading position comes as no surprise, as he was already ahead in the polls before the Russian invasion and his stature as a wartime leader with a reputation in the media has given him a significant boost in first-round voting intents.

On the other hand, Le Pen was expected to be susceptible to the political fallout from the war but the latest polls put her in second place to Macron, with 17% of first-round voting intentions, while Zemmour, Pécresse and far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon are on around 12-13% each.

Political experts say she is an experienced campaigner — with her third attempt at the presidency — who has kept her head throughout the tumultuous events of Macron’s five-year presidency, including the gilets Jaunes protests against the government, the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.

 Ukraine war has impeded debate about the major preoccupations of the French far-right — immigration and law and order — and allowed Macron’s supporters to declare that the conflict has absolved the president’s push for more European autonomy through collective defence and strategic investment, but the rising cost of living leaves the incumbent vulnerable to voter resentment on polling day.

The only fear in the Macron camp is that France will be shaken by a surprise victory for populists like the UK in the 2016 referendum or Trump's victory in the US elections.