El Niño disasters: governments know what’s coming, but are unprepared – what must change

By Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

Drought disasters in southern Africa are mainly attributed to a lack of preparedness, inadequate response and mitigation and poor risk reduction measures. With little to no preparation for drought disasters, such as the failure of the staple maize crop, the only option after the disaster hits is delayed relief action.

Because of climate change, the El Niño-induced impacts on southern Africa – dry spells, low and erratic rainfall and elevated temperatures, and floods – are becoming more intense and prolonged. These are well-studied and can be mitigated by taking proactive measures.

The looming crises are real and require immediate intervention. But governments in southern Africa often act only when events unfold. They focus on reactive post-disaster recovery, often supported by the international community. This is why impoverished communities in the region are repeatedly exposed to natural disasters.

The current El Niño phase, which has caused drought in the region, was announced at the end of 2022. From the onset, it was predicted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to be a strong El Niño with likely impacts on food production, water scarcity and public health. Southern Africa depends heavily on agriculture for food and livelihood options, which makes it highly vulnerable to El Niño. Climate experts urged the region to be prepared.

As a professor of climate change, food systems and health, I believe that the impacts of remaining unprepared for disasters such as those caused by El Niño will be severe for children, women, the elderly and other vulnerable groups. Research has also shown that repeated exposure to disasters by the same vulnerable communities exposes them to mental health problems, such as depression.

The region is poorly prepared because governments do not invest enough in weather monitoring, and they lack comprehensive strategies to prepare for disasters. Government disaster policies are often incoherent and information is not communicated. There is a need to be clearer about who does what and coordinate preparations for disasters better.

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