The first part of the UN IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) is out, detailing the ‘physical basis’ of climate change. It envisions an apocalyptic future. We will not be able to avoid the irreversible effects of global warming – we are already facing them. However, the first part of AR6 is not all doom and gloom: the scientists also offer a ray of hope.

IPCC video trailer
https://twitter.com/IPCC_CH/status/1424654466566037504

The report:
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=pmd_4f1edbd8c2b0e95d08b994bbcfbf60702e71812c-1628508735-0-gqNtZGzNAeKjcnBszQbi

The report finds no evidence for some temperature level, above which climate change will spiral out of control. This means the situation is still in our hands: if we choose to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), the worst effects can be avoided. It is up to humankind to limit the damage. Nature is, as if, eager to help us and is not going to worsen the situation if we don’t.

The world can take heed, and set stringent emission cut targets at the next major meeting – the 26th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP 26), under the UN Climate Change Conference, to be held in November in Glasgow, UK. [https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/conferences/glasgow-climate-change-conference]

If the targets and actions are ambitious, it is entirely possible that apocalypse can be postponed. There are many variables, different countries working at different levels, but in the best-case scenario, we’d be shifting away from GHG-generating fossil-fuel based energy to renewable energy soonest. Nations would restore ecosystems which would be better able to soak up dangerous amounts of carbon dioxide.

If we pursue this most-optimistic option, we certainly can achieve the dream of ‘net zero’ transmission – at least we can, the best news from the report is that scientists do not rule out that theoretical possibility. In that case, there is a good chance warming could be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) over preindustrial levels. It would be just a fraction of a degree warmer than now. Yes, all the troubles we see today will be there in that case, but we would be able to adapt to those conditions. Life would be manageable, in other words, provided all nations show total commitment to the cause.

Read on:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2021/08/09/change-ipcc-report/

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58130705