Could Israel’s strike against the Iranian embassy in Damascus escalate into a wider regional war? Expert Q&A

By Scott Lucas, University College Dublin

Ever since Israel launched a strike against the Iranian embassy in Damascus on April 1, killing seven people including two senior members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, fears have mounted that Tehran would order a revenge attack against Israel. Bloodcurdling rhetoric from Iran’s leaders has done nothing to allay those fears, with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei declaring that Israel “must be punished and it shall be”. Meanwhile, the US president has promised Israel “ironclad” US support and vowed to “do all we can to protect Israel’s security”. So how worried should the west be? Could this escalate into a wider regional war? We spoke with Scott Lucas, a Middle East scholar at University College Dublin, who has been writing about tensions in the Middle East for many years.

1. What prompted Israel to launch its attack on Iran’s embassy in Damascus? Are they not busy enough in Gaza without the prospect of opening another front in the conflict?

Israel has been attacking the positions of Iran, an essential supporter of the Assad regime in Syria’s internal conflict, for more than a decade. They have periodically struck Iranian and Assad positions to disrupt the transfer of weapons and missiles to Lebanon’s Hezbollah, an Islamist militant organisation.

After the start of the war with Hamas on October 7, Israel shifted from attacks on munitions to targeted assassinations of senior Iranian officers. Iran’s top commander in Syria, Sayyed Razi Mousavi, was killed on December 25, and other commanders – including the Iranian head (Sadegh Omidzadeh) and deputy head (Hajj Gholam) of intelligence – were slain in Damascus in subsequent strikes.

The assassination of Gen Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the Quds Force commander overseeing Syria and Lebanon, and six other personnel on April 1 was thus far from unprecedented. What was distinctive was the location: the first Israeli assault on an Iranian diplomatic complex.

Read Full Story https://theconversation.com/could-israels-strike-against-the-iranian-embassy-in-damascus-escalate-into-a-wider-regional-war-expert-qanda-227713