Can science explain why couples break up? The mathematical anatomy of a fall

By José-Manuel Rey, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Jorge Herrera de la Cruz, Universidad CEU San Pablo

French director Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall, winner of the 2023 Oscar for best original script, reconstructs a fatal fall in order to dissect the collapse of the romantic relationship between the film’s leading couple, Sandra Voyter and Samuel Maleski.

Far from an exception, breakups of the sort depicted in the film are commonplace: global data shows high levels of marriage failure, with a marked increase towards the end of the last century.

In some Western countries, as many as 50% of marriages do not make it past 25 years, giving rise to the popular maxim “half of all marriages end in divorce”.

According to Triet, “the strange thing is for a relationship to work. The majority are hellish, and the film aims to go deep into that hell.”

Importantly, divorce statistics do not account for the number of relationships that are unhappy. Perhaps the majority are indeed hellish, but some marriages today are long-lasting, and seem stronger and more loving than any that came before. This dichotomy – widespread failure or exceptional success– seems to summarise the current state of marriage in the West. This has been dubbed the “all or nothing” marriage.

Supplying relationship energy

Scientific studies have established that romantic relationships tend to drop off, meaning that, on average, satisfaction levels reduce over time. Successful couples are able to arrest this fall, finding a satisfying level that can last indefinitely. Many others, however, gradually decline to the point where breaking up is only a matter of time.

Relationship psychology shows that love alone is not enough to keep a couple together –it requires effort. Relationship scientist John Gottman likens this to the second law of thermodynamics, whereby a closed system – such as a marriage– degenerates unless energy is supplied. As he puts it, “if you do nothing to make things get better in your marriage but do not do anything wrong, the marriage will still tend to get worse over time”.

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