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The long-awaited Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the UN IPCC is one more warning cry: Irreversible changes in climate are taking place, the time is running out for action, and the next few decades are crucial to save humankind.
The report was due last December, but the timeline was extended due to the pandemic. There are a set of three reports, from three working groups, along with one Synthesis Report being released this month. The first of them, dealing with the physical basis of the climate-change phenomenon was out on Monday.
Prepared by the climate scientists of all member countries, this is “the most up-to-date physical understanding of the climate system and climate change, bringing together the latest advances in climate science, and combining multiple lines of evidence from paleoclimate, observations, process understanding, and global and regional climate simulations.”
The report:
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=pmd_4f1edbd8c2b0e95d08b994bbcfbf60702e71812c-1628508735-0-gqNtZGzNAeKjcnBszQbi
Possible Climate Futures
The first report sets out five illustrative emissions scenarios to explore the climate response to greenhouse gas (GHG), land use and air pollutants. Here are some predictions common to all five:
* Global surface temperature will continue to increase until at least the mid-century under all emissions scenarios considered. Global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C will be exceeded during the 21st century unless deep reductions in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades.
* Many changes in the climate system become larger in direct relation to increasing global warming. They include increases in the frequency and intensity of hot extremes, marine heatwaves, and heavy precipitation, agricultural and ecological droughts in some regions, and proportion of intense tropical cyclones, as well as reductions in Arctic sea ice, snow cover and permafrost.
* Continued global warming is projected to further intensify the global water cycle, including its variability, global monsoon precipitation and the severity of wet and dry events.
* Many changes due to past and future greenhouse gas emissions are irreversible for centuries to millennia, especially changes in the ocean, ice sheets and global sea level. [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf]
For more and news reports, see:
https://apnews.com/article/europe-science-climate-environment-and-nature-united-nations-1d89d5183583718ad4ad311fa2ee7d83
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/09/climate/climate-change-report-ipcc-un.html
https://indianexpress.com/article/india/ipcc-report-india-asia-climate-change-heat-waves-cyclones-7445511/
Backgrounders:
https://theconversation.com/mondays-ipcc-report-is-a-really-big-deal-for-climate-change-so-what-is-it-and-why-should-we-trust-it-165614
https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2021/08/06/climate-news-un-ipcc/
IPCC Briefing: What is AR6?
https://vimeo.com/582875636