An Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons programme is unlikely – here’s why

By Christoph Bluth, University of  Bradford

Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has vowed to retaliate against Iran for the unprecedented aerial assault on April 13. He has made it clear that “we will make our own decisions, and the state of Israel will do all that is needed to defend itself”.

Iran’s attack involved around 170 drones, over 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles, all directed against Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The attack was launched in retaliation for Israel’s April 1 strike against the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, which killed two top military leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The timing, scale and nature of Israel’s response remain to be seen. But various options have been canvassed, including a strike of some sort against Iran’s nuclear weapons programme.

Israel has targeted Iran’s nuclear programme before. It has assassinated a number of nuclear scientists over the years, and launched a number of attacks on the country’s nuclear facilities. Physical attacks have taken the form of drone strikes and commando raids, including one in January 2018 on a facility in Tehran, in which Mossad agents stole large numbers of classified documents which Netanyahu said proved Iran was pursuing a nuclear weapons programme.

In April 2021, Iran accused Israel of orchestrating an explosion at its primary uranium enrichment facility in Natanz, resulting in substantial damage to its centrifuges. This marked the second incident within a year involving a mysterious explosion at the site. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement in either attack.

Israel is also thought to have mounted a number of cyberattacks on Iran’s nuclear programme, most prominently in June 2010 with the introduction of Stuxnet computer malware into Iranian nuclear facilities. Believed to have been created through collaboration between US and Israeli intelligence, the Stuxnet malware was designed to severely disrupt centrifuge operations at Natanz and is thought to have set back Iran’s nuclear weapons programme by years.

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