Chapter 1 continues...

SECURITY TRANSITION.
The decision to withdraw from Afghanistan was made at the 2010 NATO Summit at Lisbon. This withdrawal was meant to be a gradual, phased out one, taking place over five phases, with the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) assuming full responsibility for the country by December 2014. The areas transferred to the ANSF in each phase were determined by operational, political and economic considerations, drawing on the assessment and recommendations of the Afghan government and NATO/ISAF through the Joint Afghan-NATO Inteqal Board.1 The transition process, which began in March 2011, initially included some of the relatively more peaceful and stable provinces like Bamiyan, Panjshir and parts of Northern Afghanistan. The fifth and final phase of this transition was announced in June 2013 with which the ANSF assumed the lead role for security in all 34 Afghan provinces.
As of January 2014, the total number of foreign troops in Afghanistan was about 57,000, the bulk of which will be withdrawn by December 2014.2 These troops are now required to play a supporting and advisory role on the ground and provide assistance to the ANSF through air support and medical evacuations. The foreign troop drawdown should not be seen as a complete withdrawal from Afghanistan. NATO has stressed that it will continue to provide assistance to Afghanistan post-2014, and a number of individual partner countries like Germany, Italy, Denmark, Turkey, Finland, Australia, and Sweden have also stated that they will continue to maintain a number of troops in Afghanistan post-2014 in an advisory capacity.
However, the prolonged support of these countries will depend on the role the US plays in Afghanistan in the future. At present, the nature and size of US military presence in Afghanistan post-2014 is unclear. The negotiations for the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) have had its own share of ups and downs. President Karzai called off the discussions in June 2013 following the opening of the Taliban’s political office in Doha as he believed that the US was bypassing his government in an attempt to reach an agreement with the Taliban independently.

To be continued...