Chapter 3: Strategic Playbook

Any examination of Pakistan’s policies towards Afghanistan will be incomplete without identifying, and understanding, the key policy makers and their compulsions.

Pakistan has a well-defined “strategic enclave”, which directs the strategic dialogue in the country and is dominated by the military and its intelligence unit—the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). This strategic enclave plays a dominant role in foreign policy-making, irrespective of the nature of the regime. It has been the beliefs, perceptions and interests of this strategic enclave defined Pakistan’s policies and relations with India, China, the US and Afghanistan.

Within this enclave, three specific groups play a defining role in determining Pakistan’s Afghan policy: Punjabis, Pashtuns and Islamists.
It was the Punjabi experience of serving as soldiers in the British Army that first shaped the security perspective of the successor Pakistani state towards Afghanistan. Just as the British regarded a friendly Kabul regime as imperative for the security of British India, similarly, the Punjabis also regard an Afghan regime favourably disposed towards Pakistan and unchallenged Pakistani influence in Afghanistan as essential for Pakistan’s security.


Similarly, it was the Punjabis, the most influential group in Pakistan’s foreign policy apparatus and military, who witnessed the worst consequences of Partition and thus are still strongly motivated by their hatred of, and vengefulness towards, India. The acquisition of Kashmir and the cultivation of close ties with the Islamic world in order to enhance Pakistan’s regional influence and develop a strategic Islamic bloc against India have been long- cherished Punjabi goals. A pro-Pakistan government in Afghanistan is thus an important part of this strategic struggle against India.

To be continued…