Chapter 2 continues…

In the past year or so, there have been signs that there may have been a ‘strategic shift’ in Pakistan’s Afghan policy. Its public declarations in support of an Afghan-led peace process and for a broad-based, inclusive Afghan Government, and its decision to release a number of Taliban prisoners have also been used as examples to highlight this shift in Pakistan’s policy. However, this again seems more like an ‘adjustment’ to its policy than a ‘shift’.

Pakistan does not expect the Taliban to be able to secure a military victory or control the country as it had prior to its overthrow. Moreover, it is unlikely that Pakistan itself would want to see complete Taliban-domination in Afghanistan in the future either.

However, despite their past and present differences, Pakistan still views the Taliban as the only political faction in Afghanistan that could possibly ensure its interests there. A broad based government representing the various political factions, including the Taliban, would be more acceptable. Thus, by showing an eagerness to assist the Afghan peace talks, Pakistan is seeking to secure a place for the Taliban in a future representative political setup without a protracted armed struggle that could see the insurgents completely excluded from the process.

At the same time, by maintaining control over the release of prisoners and denying the Afghan High Peace Council access to the senior Taliban leadership, Pakistan is attempting to ensure that it continues to occupy an important place in determining the Afghan endgame. Since the Afghan Jihad, Pakistan believes that it has the right to determine the political outcome in Afghanistan – as a result of the sacrifices made by it as a frontline state.

It has resented any effort in the past by the Afghan government, the US or even the Taliban to exclude it from this process. Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the second-in-command of the Quetta Shura in 2010, was said to have been arrested because of his efforts to reach out to the Afghan government and the US.

To be continued…