Hissing Dragon-Squirming Tiger:

Comparisons, Negotiations

and Attitudes continues....

But in the meantime, the

allegiance of Tibet’s stubbornly Buddhist population to the Dalai Lama

is a problem for China. Born in 1935, the present 14th Dalai Lama has

a limited period of life left, and then as per Tibetan tradition a new

incarnation will have to be found. China has already by decree

promulgated a new law which came into effect on 1st September 2007,

by which the Chinese Communist Party will accord recognition to

reincarnations of Tibet’s high lamas. This was, in fact, one of the main

reasons for the flare-up of Tibetan passions in the spring of 2008,

starting from 10th March the 49th anniversary of the Tibetan National

Uprising Day. (The Chinese have already neutralized the position of Tibet’s second-highest lama, the Panchen Lama ever since the previous incarnate decided to side with the Chinese.)

With regard to Tibet, the Chinese analyst Zhang Wenmu of the

Chinese Institute of Contemporary International Relations has warned

as late as 1998 that India’s intention is to separate Tibet from China in order to create a buffer zone.

What is of interest to India is the Chinese view of India’s future

geo-political strategy in the emerging multi-polar strategic scenario.

Chinese strategic analysts see India as a likely future rival because of

lingering Indian historical hostility continuing from the 1950-1962

period.

This they believe is due to India’s inability to ‘see the facts right

in 1962’. The issue of India’s asylum to the Dalai Lama still rankles.

Some Chinese analysts believe that India ‘instigated treason’ in Tibet in

1950. The military skirmishes of 1986-87 lead Chinese analysts to

believe that India cannot find common ground to settle the boundary

dispute. India’s May 1998 nuclear tests and the reason then given that

they were in reaction to a Chinese threat, adds to their belief that there

is an enduring rivalry.

To be continued....