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Hissing Dragon-Squirming Tiger:
Comparisons, Negotiations
and Attitudes continues .....
While the first three factors have begun to be expressed in different ways in the Chinese strategic literature, the fourth factor is unlikely to find expression in any written work that anyone outside the inner official circles in China can ever find. It is likely that it will remain confined to the Central Military Commission of the CCP and a select few in the General Political Department of the PLA Headquarters. Not
even the Central Military Commission of the Government of the PRC is likely to find any written expression of this significant factor.
It is best illustrated by giving a small example. The militaries of Britain, Australia and Canada have an inbuilt handicap in that they do not possess the
luxury of an ‘enemy’ against whom they have to prepare for, both
organizationally and in training methods, so as to maintain constant
readiness. Their governments therefore give them the opportunity to
test out their own combat readiness in the wars started by the USA, in
which they participate in a small way.
The UN also sometimes provides
such opportunities. Kosovo, Iraq, and Afghanistan can be seen as
examples. China has itself moved into the globalised world as a
responsible major player. It can ill-afford casual commitment of its
forces to anything other than well-thought-out and limited actions that
do not have the potential for turning into a world conflagaration.
A limited conflict with India makes an ideal possible testing ground for
its new operational concepts, its equipment philosophy and armaments,
and its new tactical doctrines. The USA is highly unlikely to commit
itself to a war with China in South Asia which is to be fought ‘to the last
Indian’. Till such time in the 2020-30 period when China reaches what
it might consider a level of adequate self-confidence, this may continue
to remain a live factor, for which again India will need to be prepared.
To be continued.....