National Security Doctrine for Global Reach continues...

Hence, the attempt to portray India as a country that has gone back on its international commitment to hold a plebiscite under UN auspices is simply not true: the UN resolutions on plebiscite remain dead letters today because none of the conditions precedent for its implementation obtain. And especially so, since Pakistan, even today, would be unable to meet those conditions, constrained as it is by domestic compulsions. Hence, a solution to the Kashmir question has to be found ab initio, since these UN resolutions are unimplementable. The only way a solution can be found now is to simply wait. Time will provide a way. But till then the Nation must bear the expense of defending our present position against terrorism and aggression.

To meet these threats, the Nation’s defence budget should be at seven per cent or thereabouts of the GDP.

According to the calculations made by the Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis (IDSA), defence expenditure since 1980 has grown at the average annual growth rate of 12.78 per cent in current prices. In the 1970s, defence expenditure grew by 10.4 per cent. In the early 1980s, between 1980/81 and 1986/87, it grew at a much higher rate of 19.5 per cent. Since then, defence expenditure has been growing at much lower rates, the average since 1986/87 being only 9.3 per cent. Since 1991, the defence expenditure has grown at 8 per cent per year. But these figures are computed in current prices, which therefore are inflated by price rises.

The differences in growth rates in defence expenditure during the past years between current prices and constant prices, are striking. During the past 20 years, Indian defence expenditure in constant price has grown only at around 5.0 per cent compared to 12.8 per cent in current prices. By sub periods, the contrast is even more blatant. During the 1970s, defence expenditure, at constant prices grew at 0.02 per cent per annum (compared to the 10.4 per cent growth in current prices).

to be continued...