Dragon’s Mind: The Chinese

Strategic View continues....

One reason for this is that, unlike the USA, which prefers first-strike capabilities and counter-force weapons (which need high accuracy to keep collateral damage to the minimum), China

presently has a declared ‘no-first-use’ policy, and relies for deterrence on its 3-megaton ‘city-busters’ to retaliate against counter-value targets. India is not yet considered a nuclear power by China, which in theory brings it

into the category of countries against whom China has declared it will not use nuclear weapons, but in the case of a shooting war with India, that could change. Also to be reckoned with is the fact that China has also

produced and deployed Tactical Nuclear Weapons, including in Tibet,

which is a policy decision contradictory to a ‘No-First-Use’ policy.

However, China is definitely not keen on a war with India, even of a

punitive nature, if it can be avoided.

ROLE OF CHINA IN THE NEXT ARMED CONFLICT WITH PAKISTAN



While it is unlikely that China will actually open an active military

front in the event of a fresh Indo-Pakistan war, it is quite likely to go

out of its way to aid Pakistan with the aim of causing a humiliation for

India. This could be both covertly and overtly, both subtly and brazenly

as a concerted effort on all fronts and in all spheres of activity. Is India’s

fragmented polity capable of conducting a limited war with Pakistan,

yet containing it both diplomatically and militarily to a conflict short of

an all-out open war, while dealing with a wide variety of Chinese

pressures? Chinese assistance to Pakistan could be both direct and by

proxy, such as international/diplomatic, along with ground, naval and

missile threats. A border settlement with China would have reduced one

irritant that could be used by China for leverage whenever it suits her.

Unfortunately for India, it seems that the window of opportunity that

existed from the 1980’s (Deng’s offer) to 1998 (Pokharan-2) is now closed in its original form. A fresh set of negotiating positions may be

necessary for India.

To be continued...