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A STRATEGY TO DETER TERRORISM continues....
Quoting George and Smoke, “[T]he deterrent use of force is the deployment of military power so as to be able to prevent an adversary from doing something that one does not want him to do and that he might otherwise be tempted to do by threatening him with unacceptable punishment if he does it.” The effectiveness of the deterrence depends upon a state’s ability to convince a potential adversary that it has both the will and the power to punish him severely if he undertakes the undesirable action in question.
Compellence is thus a politico-military strategy of using armed forces, the actual engagement of military forces to substantially degrade the terrorist capacity to resist, or inflict damage.
Compellence requires effective communications, of a process wherein the target nation informs the terrorist outfit of what it wants and what it plans to do if the outfit does not comply and, alternatively, if it does comply, and most important is explicit about the penalties it will apply for non-compliance, and is definite about how it will react if the terrorist outfit does not go along. Compellence is more complex than deterrence because they require affirmative action on the part of the terrorist.
With deterrence and compellence firmly structured in our counter-terrorist policy, we could consider cutting the ground from under the main terrorist outfits of the Islamic fundamentalists by providing Pakistan a face-saving alternative on a Kashmir settlement.
Indo-Pakistan relations could be founded on it. Armed with a deterrence policy of dismemberment of Pakistan, we should also have a policy of compellence to persuade that nation to come on board as a partner in South Asia. Is it possible to develop such a healthy harmonious relation with Pakistan?
Indo-Pakistan relations have had many ups and down, but mostly down. The ups were during the Janata Party governments, viz. two and half years (1977-79) of Morarji Desai’s and seven months (1990-91) of Chandrashekhar’s and also during the five years (1991-96) of Narasimha Rao-led Congress government.
To be continued...