The ruling CPM-led Left Front is confident of winning the upcoming assembly elections in Kerala, a rare achievement given that an incumbent government (then headed by the Congress) has come back to power only once in the history of the state.

Till 1977, Kerala had been witnessing a cyclic change in its government and the power was shared every five years by the two main politics fronts of the state.

That year, the Congress teamed up with the CPI in the assembly elections to retain power in Kerala.

The CPI had also backed the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi on declaration of Emergency in 1975, an issue that saw her and the Congress party's ouster in the 1977 general elections.

The confidence of the ruling front stems from its stupendous performance in the recent local bodies' elections despite facing the allegations of corruption, especially the ongoing investigations into the gold smuggling case.

The handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, the floods of 2018 and 2019 and the outbreak of Nipah virus in 2018 by chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan and his government has to some extent helped the ruling side buck the anti-incumbency as seen in the local bodies' elections.

On the other hand, the Congress is a divided house and the intense ongoing factionalism could hurt its prospects in the upcoming polls. There is a bitter power tussle going on between former chief minister Oommen Chandy and senior leader Ramesh Chennithala and both are strong claimants to the chief minister's post.

Also, one of its allies, the Kerala Congress (Mani) quit the opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) to join the ruling LDF.

But much would depend on the selection of candidates in the Congress. Political observers say that the UDF has a chance of bouncing back only if the Congress selects right candidates otherwise it faces an uphill task of dethroning Vijayan.

While the Congress and the CPM are bitter rivals in Kerala, the two are alliance partners in West Bengal, a state ruled by the Left for 34 years from 1977 to 2011 when Mamata Banerjee assumed power.

The BJP in Kerala continues to be on the political margins.