Russia has stationed over 100,000 troops near its border with Ukraine for months now and the war clouds have been looming over the region. With President Joe Biden saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin will "move in" on Ukraine, but may not go for a "full-blown war" has only added to the tension in the air. (https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/19/politics/russia-ukraine-joe-biden-news-conference/index.html)

None other than Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has hit back at Biden's "minor incursion" comment for suggesting that a "minor" attack might bring a milder response from the U.S. and its allies. Zelensky tweeted: "There are no minor incursions. Just as there are no minor casualties and little grief from the loss of loved ones." (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60061300)

But why did Biden talk about it just before important talks?

President Biden expressed his fears at the White House on Wednesday, just two days before U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is all set to meet his Russian counterpart on Sergey Lavrov in Geneva. Blinken is in Kyiv to reassure Ukraine. And this will be followed by talks with Lavrov.

With Russian officials insisting that the NATO and U.S. officials that it is "absolutely mandatory to make sure that Ukraine never, never, ever becomes a member of NATO" hope from the last-ditch efforts by Blinken could be dimming already. "We need ironclad, waterproof, bulletproof, legally binding guarantees. Not assurances, not safeguards, but guarantees," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told reporters during a Jan. 10 press conference. (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/19/biden-expects-putin-will-order-ukraine-invasion-vows-disaster-for-russia.html)

NATO has already rejected the Russian demands, saying that independent nations can join any military organization they want.

Is it also possible that the U.S., may concede some demands during the talks, and still defend the move saying that it averted a certain war?

While Biden said that Putin will "pay a stiff price immediately, near term, medium-term and long term," Russia is clearly having the upper hand having amassed troops on the border, and he may try to win concessions from the NATO and the U.S.


Read more:

Fears of an Invasion:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/20/briefing/russia-ukraine-putin-biden.html

Can the threat of harsh sanctions deter Russia?
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/19/biden-expects-putin-will-order-ukraine-invasion-vows-disaster-for-russia.html