We are poised to pass 1.5℃ of global warming – world leaders offer 4 ways to manage this dangerous time

By Jonathan Symons, Macquarie University

For three decades, the goal of international climate negotiations has been to avoid “dangerous” warming above 1.5℃. With warming to date standing at around 1.2℃, we haven’t quite reached the zone we labelled dangerous and pledged to avoid.

But recent scientific assessments suggest we’re on the brink of passing that milestone. Within this decade, global annual temperatures will likely exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average for at least one year. This threshold was already briefly passed for the month of July 2023 during the Northern summer.

The question is, how do we manage this period of “overshoot” and bring temperatures back down? The goal will be to restore a more habitable climate, as fast as possible.

Today an independent group of global leaders released a major report. The Climate Overshoot Commission offers guidance at this crucial time. So far the report’s call for an immediate moratorium on “solar radiation management” (deflecting the sun’s rays to reduce warming) has attracted the most attention. But the details of other recommendations deserve closer inspection.

https://youtu.be/FxuvAzpdBHQ?si=tG98CkBunU-5BF9Y

How can we respond to climate overshoot?

Historically, climate policies have focused on mitigation (reducing greenhouse gas emissions). More recently, adaptation has gained prominence.

But the climate overshoot report identifies at least four different kinds of responses to warming above 1.5℃:

1. cut emissions to mitigate warming

2. adapt to the changing climate

3. remove carbon that is already in the atmosphere or ocean

4. explore intervening to limit warming by intentionally reflecting a fraction of sunlight into space.

The commission’s task was to examine how all possible responses might best be combined. Their report was written by 12 global leaders – including former presidents of Niger, Kiribati and Mexico – who worked alongside a youth panel and a team of scientific advisers.

https://twitter.com/overshoot_comm/status/1702338888222777772?t=80fwjdXrKZotm0cdow94BQ&s=19

The four-step plan to reining in warming

Not surprisingly, the commission argues our central task is mitigation. Transitioning away from fossil fuels remains the first priority.

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