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Insightful
Good post
New Zealand has achieved one of the best health outcomes of any country by taking decisive action from the start of the pandemic.
We argue now is the time to build on that success with a strong, science-informed strategy to get us through the next pandemic stages and lift our resilience against future emerging infectious disease threats.
Such a strategy would need to provide a robust plan for managing the two most likely pandemic scenarios – new variants and endemic disease.
The most probable scenario is that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, will continue to evolve new variants that evade immunity from prior infection or vaccination, triggering new waves. Any new variant could be more or less severe than Omicron.
The government has previously identified the need for a strategy to manage this scenario, which would require rapid risk assessment of new threats and increased controls if needed.
COVID is also likely to eventually become a more stable and predictable endemic disease, perhaps somewhat like seasonal influenza but with more severe consequences that are still emerging.
Endemic does not necessarily mean mild. The world’s biggest infectious disease killers, including tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS and malaria, are all endemic. A long-term strategy should aim to minimise health burdens (serious illness, death and long-term disability) and health inequities.
Unfortunately, New Zealand’s new approach does not provide a robust response to either of these scenarios.
Defences against likely pandemic threats
New Zealand already has well-established tools for assessing and communicating the risk associated with many other hazards such as fires and storms. Why not do the same for COVID and potentially other serious respiratory infections?