New Zealand has likely passed the peak of the most recent COVID-19 wave, thanks to strong hybrid immunity in the community and with the number of hospitalisations at the lower end of what was originally expected.

The seven-day rolling average of new daily cases has fallen steadily from a peak of around 10,000 on July 15 to just under 7,800 yesterday.

The number of reported cases depends on how many people actually test when they feel unwell. The true number of infections is likely to be significantly higher. But there is no reason to think testing has dropped off significantly in the past two weeks, or even in the past few months.

The levelling off and subsequent decline of cases fits with the wave naturally reaching a peak. The amount of virus being detected in wastewater has also decreased in the past week. Altogether this means the fall in cases is likely to be real.

Importantly, cases have been falling in all age groups, including over-70s. This is particularly good news because the increase in case rates in older age groups had been a key driver of the steep rise in hospitalisations and deaths in this wave.

We may yet see an increase in cases in families with school-age children as they returned to school this week after the winter holiday break. But this is unlikely to be enough to reverse the falling trend, and hopefully won’t affect older age groups to the same extent.
Hospitalisations typically lag behind cases by a week or two. Consistent with this pattern, the number of people in hospital with COVID has recently shown signs of levelling off. It will probably start to fall in the coming week.

Immunity from the first Omicron wave
The BA.5 variant is driving the current wave. BA.5 has taken over from BA.2 as the dominant variant in New Zealand, as it has in other countries.

Read more: https://theconversation.com/new-zealands-latest-covid-wave-is-levelling-off-with-fewer-people-in-hospital-than-feared-187773