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The West Bengal assembly elections, beginning later this month, promises to be the most crucial political battle in India this year, with the BJP making a concerted effort to wrest victory in a state where its presence has remained restricted while Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee aims to secure a third term. The no-holds-barred style campaign is expected to get shriller over the next few weeks.
For an overall analysis:
https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/will-west-bengal-tilt-towards-the-right-this-election/article33991597.ece
The highly polarizing events of the past 15 months or so form the backdrop against which the Bengal voter is going to decide on the state’s next government. The new citizenship law – promising citizenship to Hindus persecuted in nighbouring Bangladesh and denying the same to Muslim migrants from there – has huge relevance in West Bengal. [https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/why-matuas-and-caa-matter-in-west-bengal-polls-7169307/] The BJP has raised the Hindutva pitch in general, with the withdrawal of Kashmir’s special status and the launch of the Ram temple construction. This identity politics is going to be a crucial factor in the polls.
Among other issues are Covid-19 and the agricultural reform laws. The centre’s response to the pandemic has been hailed by supporters as decisive and a lesson for the rest of the world [https://in.news.yahoo.com/global-leaders-hail-indias-scientific-062749019.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAM0OVBMZx-nEKO5tgIqnX80ge4ctnNX7MbAES0UJpYP2osxfreOUGrZh4dCb45MXmZdyGpwIIUt650vGvsN-fPqUCZsguOavGuEl2C8keH7o_L5Hx6SQZdVA-RfzZpFUij6Yiu2dFuWC0Dlb4i8rmqgQMXnOZ3ik8_NrK7SXmPJq], and criticized for callousness by critics. [An extensive essay collection: https://www.theindiaforum.in/article/india-and-pandemic-first-year] In West Bengal, the same can holds for the Trinamool government too. [https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coronavirus-mamata-banerjee-told-amit-shah-on-covid-19-do-it-yourself-what-he-said-2236271] The three laws passed late last year have been strongly opposed by sections of farming communities, more noticeably from the northern states. [West Bengal’s response: https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/mamata-govt-tables-resolution-against-farm-laws-in-assembly-amid-bjp-walkout/article33684494.ece] [Also: https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/bharat-bandh-in-bengal-not-all-farmers-know-why-others-protesting-farm-bills-1747797-2020-12-08]
Banerjee is banking a lot on the fact that hers is Bengal’s own regional party while the BJP central leadership would find it difficult to strike a chord with masses. She, however, faces large-scale exodus from her ranks as senior ministers have quit and joined the BJP. Battling anti-incumbency, she will also have to answer the BJP’s accusations of ignoring terrorist activities at home and poor law and order [https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/story/handmade-handcrafted-lethal-west-bengal-s-bomb-factories-unearthed-1770690-2021-02-18].
One early opinion poll gives Banerjee an upper hand [https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/assembly-elections-2021-opinion-poll-shows-mamata-retaining-west-bengal-assam-likely-to-go-bjps-way/2203945/], though polls have their own limitations, and this may be too early to read the voter’s mind.