Missiles descending on Tel Aviv on Tuesday night signaled a chilling escalation in a long-feared regional conflict. This was Iran's second aerial strike on Israel in less than six months. Unlike the previous attack, where drones and cruise missiles were launched with warning, this time ballistic missiles targeted densely populated urban areas. Israeli officials are framing the assault as an Iranian declaration of war.

Despite no casualties, the targeting of cities demands a robust Israeli response. After the previous attack in April, Israel’s retaliation was largely symbolic, focusing on an air defense outpost in Iran. However, given the recent threat to Israeli citizens, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to take decisive action. The war cabinet has likely prepared a substantial target list, possibly including Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The White House alerted the public to the imminent missile launch, attempting to preempt the attack and mitigate its surprise impact. While this strategy failed, it served to show that Washington was not caught off guard.

The implications of this attack extend into US politics, just five weeks before a crucial presidential election. Donald Trump is leveraging the situation to portray the Biden administration as ineffective on the global stage. Meanwhile, the US has struggled to negotiate a hostages-for-peace deal in Gaza and failed to secure a ceasefire in Lebanon.

Following Israel’s airstrike that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) framed the missile attack as retaliation. The dynamics in the region are shifting, with Iran feeling pressure to demonstrate its strength to allies like Hezbollah.

The Biden administration’s ability to restrain Israeli actions is weakening. Politically, it cannot afford to be seen as limiting Israel's response to Iranian attacks, giving Netanyahu greater freedom to act. This precarious situation raises concerns about the potential for nuclear-capable missiles just 12 minutes from Israel, intensifying calls for preemptive action against Iran