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It was August 29 when Hurricane Katrina struck Louisiana. Sixteen years after the most devastating storm in American history comes Hurricane Ida, targeting the same area, with the same wind speed. The two have many similarities, but – at the time of writing – as Ida is about to make the landfall, there could be some important differences in its direction and magnitude. Wind, rain and several other factors may also dramatically change Ida’s script.
Explainer:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0LwCkb4rBw
Direction
Katrina arrived from south, while Ida is coming from southeast. The angle could be bad news for New Orleans. Also on the target could be Baton Rouge and the industrial areas. (This is “the worst place for a hurricane”, impacting a key infrastructure region critical for the economy.)
Magnitude
Katrina had a big ‘storm surge’, that is, the push of the water was very broad. Ida is likely to be less broad, more focused; like Hurricane Camille of 1969. But when a storm is pushed over a broader area, the push itself is less powerful, as it is distributed over more area. The focused push could be more intense. Katrina’s enormous storm surge brought over 20 feet of water to parts of the Mississippi coast, whereas Ida is projected to have a storm surge of 10 to 15 feet as of now. If so, damage could be far less.
* Katrina had ‘rapid intensification’, and Ida is following the same model. Over the past four decades, hurricanes have frequently been intensifying more rapidly, partly due to climate change.
* A hurricane has an ‘eye’ at the center, and its pillar at the center, called the ‘eyewall’ can become so small, that it develops an outer eyewall which takes its place. This change, called ‘eyewall replacement’, weakens the hurricane. For Katrina, it happened 12 hours before the landfall. For Ida, it is not yet clear if and when that will happen.
* The destruction of Katrina in New Orleans is blamed more on levee failures than the storm power itself. That flood protection system is now improved, and the city is better protected.
Also read:
https://apnews.com/article/hurricane-ida-katrina-compare-louisiana-88dce72660d0c928f4815eff5a8bfd8f
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/28/us/hurricane-ida-vs-katrina.html
https://www.wfaa.com/video/weather/severe-weather/hurricane-ida-vs-hurricane-katrina-comparing-the-two-storms/287-83e6ea6e-ebd0-4671-9ecf-04ecb8a34527
Updates:
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2021-08-28-hurricane-ida-forecast-louisiana-mississippi-alabama-gulf-coast
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/live-news/live-ida-reaches-major-hurricane-status-as-it-closes-in-on-louisiana/1006534
https://apnews.com/article/business-health-environment-and-nature-louisiana-coronavirus-pandemic-115ff1a54e18d9eee61a81afa8df9fad