Alarming headlines and media coverage have said we’ve had 100 times as many influenza cases in the first two months of 2023 compared with the same time the previous year.

The coverage suggested we’re in for a bumper flu season, starting early and your best protection was to get a flu vaccine, when available.

But that scary sounding 100 figure is misleading. Here’s what’s behind the figures and what we can really expect from the 2023 flu season.

Comparing apples with oranges

In the first two months of 2023, there were 8,474 laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza. In 2022, over the same period, there were 79 cases.

So it might seem this year’s figures are indeed more than 100 times higher than last year’s. But we shouldn’t be alarmed. That’s because in early 2022, influenza cases were artificially low.

Strict COVID measures almost eliminated influenza outbreaks in 2020 and 2021. Shutting international borders, quarantining, social distancing and mask-wearing stopped influenza coming into the country and spreading.

Many COVID restrictions weren’t relaxed until late February/March 2022. So, in January and February of that year there were fewer opportunities for us to mingle and spread the influenza virus. It’s hardly surprising there were few cases then.

In fact, the rate of flu in 2023 is actually very similar to pre-COVID years (that is before 2020).

As always, the reported cases represent just a fraction of the actual influenza cases. That’s because many people do not seek medical care when infected with influenza or their GP doesn’t always test them for it.

How about an earlier flu season?

Every year, it seems, influenza throws a new curve ball making predictions tricky.

Flu rates in the northern hemisphere largely peaked in December 2022, two months earlier than usual.

But there has been some late-season influenza B activity in the northern hemisphere this year. This is one type of influenza that causes seasonal flu. So travellers arriving/returning from the northern hemisphere have been bringing influenza to Australia for several months.

Read Full Story https://theconversation.com/are-flu-cases-already-100-times-higher-than-last-year-heres-what-we-really-know-about-the-2023-flu-season-201559