Critical Triangle continues .....

While the general direction of US-Pakistan ties seems on a downward spiral, two conclusions are inescapable. First, the re-establishment of trust is now virtually impossible with Pakistan
having burnt all its proverbial bridges. Second, Pakistan has reduced itself in the US cost benefit matrix to just two issues— terrorism and logistic salience to the US effort in Afghanistan— that will diminish in significance to the US over the next several years, as foreign forces draw down from Afghanistan.

This has produced several results that further reduce the US’ ability to positively influence Pakistan or for Pakistan to produce positive US responses. Given the single point focus on the two subjects all discussion on other aspects of the relationship are determined by terrorism and Afghanistan. As a result path dependency, by which the complex interactions of several government agencies with their counterparts provides a safety net of myriad interests to keep the bilateral relationship going, seems to be evaporating.

Come the withdrawal in 2014, this dependency will be further reduced. As the US footprint in Afghanistan contracts, Pakistan’s logistical salience reduces to just one main agenda—the fight against terrorism. At the same time, given Pakistan’s economic and security condition, its need for the US only increases if it needs to retain any hope of cajoling India into even minor changes of the status quo in Kashmir. This can produce one of two results—either a far more revisionist and aggressive Pakistan, or one that is forced to confront its security policies.

However, to change track on the use of proxy actors might be a stretch too far for the Pakistani state. Its ability to keep India bogged down using these proxy actors is what gives Pakistan salience in the policies of its other great benefactor—China.

In sum, Pakistan will continue with its Afghan policies, with little success, further alienating the US. Ties between the US and Pakistan will not suffer a clean break, but will in the foreseeable future not attain any level of warmth or trust and certainly not to the extent that Pakistan requires it to further its core interests.

Critical Triangle Concluded!!!